Many fans are excited about College Football playoff expansion from four teams to 12. It gives more teams that likely would not have a chance to get into the playoffs like Indiana, Boise State, Iowa State, and many other teams, a chance. With this expansion comes a new excitement to the college football era, more playoff games, more rivalries, and more opportunities for small schools. Many fans have been asking for an expansion from 4 teams to 12 for many years now.

The NCAA announced this expansion in preseason of 2023 due to the demanding fan base who was tired of their teams barely missing the playoffs each year to teams such as Alabama, Georgia, Michigan and Clemson who have been dominating the NCAA for quite some time now.

Being officially over the halfway point in the season, things are starting to get a little more chaotic knowing that an upset could be right around the corner and take a team out of playoff contention like USC or Utah. Just one error could cost one of these teams their dream. There are currently less than 30 teams in playoff contention and the field will just continue to get slimmer and slimmer. 

There have been some upsets this year affecting big name schools like Alabama, Missouri, and Notre Dame. For Alabama, their win over Georgia in week five looked really good on their resume, but after that crushing defeat to Vanderbilt in week 6, things are not looking so bright anymore. Then there is Missouri who lost to #15 Texas A&M, that win for A&M sure looks good, especially after losing to Notre Dame who, after beating A&M in week one, lost to Northern Illinois 16-14 in week two. Although that loss was pretty early in the season, if there is a time to get upset it is always a good time for it to be in September.

Then there are the surprise teams such as the Indiana Hoosiers and the BYU Cougars. After going 3-9 last year the Hoosiers fired their head coach Tom Allen and hired Curt Signetti. Coach Signetti had an impressive career at James Madison, and just an impressive career overall since he has never had a losing record. Now he has the Hoosiers ranked at #10, going 10-0 for the first time in program history, and on the bubble of the playoffs.

The BYU Cougars on the other hand, after going 5-7 last year, are also off to an 8-0 start and are currently ranked at #7. With the playoffs expanding so much it gives teams like Indiana and BYU a chance.

But as always, the powerhouses Ohio State, Texas, Alabama, Georgia, and Oregon, are all competing for the conference titles who get the first week byes. Right now Texas is on another level of football. They look unbeatable. Although they had the tough loss to #2 Georgia, they still look really good.

Then there is Ohio State who is by far one of this year’s favorites. With no impressive wins yet, and that really close loss to #1 Oregon, 32-31, they are still ranked #2, but that all very well may change with a top 25 team in #5 Indiana left on their schedule. It will be a grind towards the end of the year, but Ohio State is Ohio State, so anything can happen.

Then there are the teams that are in-between. They have not yet secured a spot, but they are not out yet either. These teams are teams like Notre Dame, Tennessee, Miami, Ole Miss, Clemson, and many more, fighting for a spot. And yes, while Notre Dame was upset by Northern Illinois, they still have a chance. Currently ranked #8, if they win out they can finish in the top 10, guaranteeing a spot in the playoffs, and with a fairly easy schedule remaining. The toughest team they have left is probably #16 Army who is now ranked in the top 25. Then you have Ole Miss who was upset by Kentucky in week 5. They dropped down to the #19 spot after losing to #21 LSU 29-26 and are back up to #10, and still have a shot at the playoffs, but with their schedule the way it is it will not be easy, playing #11 Georgia later in the year.

There are also all of the teams on the bubble such as #5 Indiana or #20 Kansas State. Then you have #7 BYU and #15 Texas A&M all ranked in the top 25 as well. With these teams lingering around the top 12 no team has a guaranteed spot in the playoffs, but teams like this will be fighting hard to make it.

A surprise team that is not in right now is definitely the Utah Utes who, after having star quarterback Cam Rising getting injured, lost to Arizona and Arizona State, knocking them out of the Top 25. With that last loss to Houston, and just barely losing to #7 BYU 22-21, they are now 4-5 on a 5 game losing streak. They need to win 2 more games to become bowl eligible, and it looks like they are going to be struggling to just do that. 

Then finally, there are the power 4 Conference Champions. Looking at the first three there are no surprising outcomes, such as Texas, Texas A&M, LSU, or Georgia being projected to win the SEC. Chances are that Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, or Indiana will win the Big 10, and Miami or Clemson will win the ACC. The Big 12 is where the surprises might happen since there is no definite winner nor projected winner. BYU, Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas Tech are all very formidable opponents. Every team is within a coin-flip of the CFP and are all competing for one conference title.

Then there are the new At Large bids, which are teams that did not win a conference but were seeded high enough to make it. These are teams like #8 Notre Dame, who are not in a conference, and teams like #5 Indiana or #10 Ole Miss that will not win their conference, but are good enough to make the playoffs. These teams will be seeded 5-12, and the 5 seed will play the 12 seed, 6 will play 11, 7 will play 10, and 8 will play 9. The winners of those games will move on to play the conference champions who had a first week bye. Many teams that do not have a chance at a conference title are fighting for these bids.

We then take a look at the top 25 this year and see teams you would never have thought to see during preseason. Teams like #5 Indiana (10-0), #13 Boise State (8-1), #7 BYU (9-0), and #14 SMU (8-1). All of these teams have a shot at the playoffs, but Boise State and Indiana are definitely the two stand-out teams among these listed above.  Then there’s the teams that are maybe lower than you expected, like defending national champions, unranked Michigan (5-5), unranked USC (4-5), and unranked Utah (4-5). Teams like these have a very narrow tightrope to walk right now. With Michigan going up against teams like Indiana and Ohio State, their chances seem very slim. Same with USC who is unranked and has to play #8 Notre Dame at the end of the year.

Strength of schedule also plays another huge factor in deciding who makes the playoffs and who doesn’t. Teams like     #2 Ohio State, and #3 Texas, who have multiple top 25 teams on their schedule will be more likely to make the playoffs if they win their games. Then you have teams like #5 Indiana, #8 Notre Dame, and #7 BYU who all have fairly easy schedules playing very few if any top 25 teams. So when it comes down to the final projections, this will be a heavy factor in deciding who will make the playoffs, and who won’t.

The new playoff expansion has really opened some doors and made the end of the season even more exciting. The NCAA change is a clear win.